Can Pakistan Still Qualify for Semis in World Cup 2023

Can PAKISTAN Still Qualify for Semis?

Can PAKISTAN still qualify for semis? Do you want the short answer or the long answer? SHORT? YES! Pakistan can still qualify for the semis. LONG? The chances of Pakistan qualifying for the World Cup 2023 semifinals are slim. However, we have been in this position quite many times and we tend to like these complex calculations, make predictions and then hope that things go in PAKISTAN’s favor.

As per my calculations, here’s how Pakistan can still qualify for the semifinals of the ODI World Cup 2023.

Can PAKISTAN still qualify for semis in World Cup 2023?

Before we get to the interesting part, let’s take a look at what the points table looks like after match No. 30 between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. Which by the way, was won quite easily by AFGHANISTAN.

NOTE: Newzealand and England would be the next in line for PAKISTAN in this World Cup.

First, here is how the points table looks after match No. 32 between New Zealand and England:

TeamPlayedWonLostPointsNet Run Rate
1. South Africa76112+2.086
2. India66012+1.405
3. Australia6428+0.970
4. New Zealand7438+0.484
5. Pakistan7346-0.024
6. Afghanistan6336-0.718
7. Sri Lanka6244-0.275
8. Netherlands6244-1.277
9. Bangladesh7162-1.446
10. England6152-1.418

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Four losses on the trot have impaired Pakistan’s chances of qualification into the semis, the campaign started with two resounding wins against the Netherlands and Sri Lanka but the loss against INDIA was the melting point. The scenario below is absolutely necessary if Pakistan wants to qualify for the semis now.

  • Sitting in fifth place with six points, Pakistan has to win all two matches left to get to TEN points.
  • Further, at least one of New Zealand or Australia has to lose two games or more. Thirdly, Sri Lanka, level on points with Pakistan, has to lose at least one game, preferably against lower-ranked Bangladesh.
  • Finally, Afghanistan, with 2 more points than Pakistan, has to win only one match further down the road. If it wins two, only one of Afghanistan and Pakistan will qualify for the semis. Also, remember that Afghanistan’s chances are also slim, the qualification analysis right now is just for the team Pakistan.

So, can Pakistan qualify for the semis? What do you think? If there is some confusion left, have a good look at the remaining fixtures and the results that would favor Pakistan’s chances of qualification.

PAK vs BAN – PAK must win – Pakistan won the match

NZ vs SA – SA must win – South Africa won the match

IND vs SL – IND must win – India won the match

NED vs AFG – AFG must win

NZ vs PAK – PAK must win

ENG vs AUS – AUS must win

IND vs SA – IND/SA , Does not matter

BAN vs SL – BAN must win

AUS vs AFG – AUS must win

ENG vs NED – ENG must win

NZ vs SL – SL must win

SA vs AFG – SA must win

AUS vs BAN – AUS must win

ENG vs PAK – PAK must win

IND vs NED – IND must win

If everything goes according to the scenario described above, Pakistan ends up with 10 points while New Zealand and Afghanistan will have eight points each. Sri Lanka will also fail to advance with six points.

Keeping all of these in mind, what do you think about the chances? Can Pakistan qualify for the semis now? I say, let’s hope for the best.

Umer Atiq
IT Consultant and business analyst. Keeps an interest in the affair that impact business or society.